Weekly technical and trading outlook – USD/JPY

fxsoriginal  Weekly USD/JPY technical outlook

Last Update At 10 Jan 2022 00:03GMT.

Trend daily chart

Up

Daily Indicators

Bearish divergences

21 HR EMA

115.69

55 HR EMA

115.77

Trend hourly chart

Near term down

Hourly Indicators

Rising FM o/sold

13 HR RSI

39

14 HR DMI

-ve

Daily analysis

Choppy consolidation to continue.

Resistance

116.34 - Last Tue's near 5-year high.
116.18 - Last Thur's high.
116.04 - Last Fri's high.

Support

115.51 - Nov 2021 top (now sup).
115.20 - Dec 30, 2021, top (now sup).
114.96 - Last Mon's high.

USD/JPY - 115.62. Although the pair continued its recent winning streak initially last week n hit a fresh 5-year peak of 116.34 (Tue), price retreated on profit-taking n later fell on Fri from 116.04 to 115.52 in post-NFP NY session.

On the bigger picture, DLR's fall FM 118.66 (Dec 2016) to 2019 low at 104. 46 (Sep) confirms early uptrend FM 2016 29-month bottom at 99.00 has hit a top there. Despite hitting a 3-1/2 year bottom of 101.19 in Mar 2020 on risk-off trades due to COVID-19 pandemic, DLR's rally to 111.71 the same month signals correction over. Despite DLR's erratic fall to 102.60 (Jan 2021), subsequent rise to 116.65 at the start of Jul, then break of 2020 top at 112.22 to a fresh 5-year peak of 116.34 in Dec signals LT rise FM 2020 3-1/2 year 101.19 low is en route twd 116.73. Having said that, 'bearish divergences' on daily indicators may well price at 117.78 in Jan. Only below 114.96 signals top n risks 114.26, 113.15.

Today, DLR's decline from 116.34 to 115.52 on Fri after big miss in US payrolls suggests temp. top is made n present falling hourly indicators may pressure price to 115.20/25, oversold readings would keep price abv 114.96 n bring rebound later. On the upside, a daily close abv 116.04 may head back twd 116.34.

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